Published: November 01, 2009 01:14 am      

DUVALL: Handicapping some of Tuesday's elections

There’s a running joke in our newsroom, that the paper’s endorsement is the kiss of death for a candidate.

I don’t know what our winning percentage is for the candidates we endorse, but if I calculated it, one might think Dick Jauron was the editor.

It’s largely irrelevant anyway. Our endorsements are based on who we think should win, not who we think will win. We have endorsed candidates in the past whom everyone on the editorial board fully expected would get trounced. They did.

So now that all our endorsements are out there, I though I would at least handicap a few of the local races to be decided on Tuesday. This is all my gut instinct. I’ve got no polling, nor do I have any insider knowledge of campaign strategy.

We’ll start with the mayors. I think Ron Pilozzi is going to win and I think he’s going to do it by a comfortable margin. No major landslide, but if I had to guess (and I guess I do, since I’m writing this column) I think the mayor will take it by a margin of 5 or 6 percentage points.

I could be wrong on this, though. Enrollment numbers in the city favor Democrats and Rick Davis has run a tough race. I think what will put Pilozzi over the top will be a strong Republican turnout for Kevin Hardwick in his bid to unseat Michele Iannello. I’ll get to that race in a bit.

Davis is counting on two groups: River Edge and other Third Ward residents angry about their property assessments and his core of support in the Fourth Ward, particularly among those who are concerned about the Tonawanda Landfill. Davis needs heavy turnout in those two wards to have a shot.

In North Tonawanda, I’m settling in for what I think will be a long night on Tuesday. This race has all the earmarks of one too close to call. Democrats hold the enrollment edge in NT and Soos has proven twice that he’s a bona fide vote-getter in citywide elections. Despite all that, the GOP swept all but one ward race in council elections two years ago.

Furthermore, all of the groundwork for getting out the vote will come from the two mayoral campaigns. There are no bigger races, so it’s up to Soos and Ortt to work the phones, knock on doors and get their people to the polls.

I honestly won’t be surprised either way and I think this could be very close.

In the Erie County Legislature, I think Michele Iannello will hold off a hard-charging Kevin Hardwick. Say what you like about Michele, but the people who vote in municipal elections know her and like her. She’s spent four years working over her senior groups. The people most engaged in local government — members of the Clean Air Coalition come to mind — all seem to like her and the numbers are in her favor, enrollment-wise.

Both campaigns suffered late setbacks. Michele’s came from BTF President Phil Rumore basically calling her a racist after a flap regarding two black Working Families campaign volunteers who were asked not to canvass on her behalf. Hardwick has suffered at the hands of County Executive Chris Collins’ poor sense of humor. Collins, whose full support was seen as necessary for any challenger in this district to have a realistic shot, has been sidelined after he called Shelly Silver the Antichrist.

Side note: Mr. Collins, take it from this Jew. We don’t like being mentioned in the same sentence as Hitler, or Jesus-killers. Not funny.

Either way, Collins, who could have been a vocal supporter of Hardwick down the stretch, is no where to be found. Sure, he’s still writing the checks, but Hardwick could have used a high-profile campaign rally to boost his chances.

I think Michele overcomes her faux pas. At the risk of making the same mistake, I’ll say this, meant as a political reality, not a social commentary: Charges of racism don’t carry as much weight in an overwhelmingly white working class district. I could see her winning by a similar margin as Pilozzi, maybe 5 percentage points.

The majorities in both the Niagara and Erie County legislatures appear safe, though I wouldn’t be shocked if the Democrats picked up a seat in North Tonawanda thanks to Andrea McNulty’s boneheaded decision to move out of her district without telling anyone. I think the Republicans could at least make themselves viable again in Erie County by taking back the Democrats’ super majority. Races to watch there: Lynn Dixon in Hamburg and Shelly Schratz in Amherst/Tonawanda. Dixon is the safer bet as a winner for the GOP. Schratz would be an upset given the demographic changes that have taken place in Amherst over the last five years, but if you’re talking politics three days before an election, you have to pick a dark horse. She’s mine.

I’ll offer my apologies now to any candidate whom I’ve just picked to win. If you thought the News endorsement was bad, just wait until you see my track record.

Eric DuVall is the managing editor of the Tonawanda News. His column appears Wednesdays and Sundays. Contact him at eric.duvall@tonawanda-news.com.